SANTA MONICA, Calif. — TrueCar.com, the authority on new car pricing, trends and forecasting, today released its October 2011 sales and incentives forecast. The forecast shows the following:
- For October 2011, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,035,042 units, up 9.0 percent from October 2010 and down 1.7 percent from September 2011 (on an unadjusted basis)
- The October 2011 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 13.4 million new car sales, up from 13.1 million in September 2011 and up from 12.2 million in October 2010
- Retail sales are up 9.8 percent compared to October 2010 and down 0.5 percent from September 2011
- Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 20 percent of total industry sales in October 2011
- The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,669 in October 2011, which represents an increase of 0.6 percent from September 2011 and up 4.6 percent from October 2010
- Used car sales* are estimated to be 2,741,442, up 5.7 percent from October 2010 and down 15.1 percent from September 2011. The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1:3 for October 2011
“Consumers are no longer dragging their feet on new vehicle purchases as they feel the economy is moving in the right direction, ” said Jesse Toprak, Vice President of Industry Trends and Insights for TrueCar.com. “This will be the fifth straight month where SAAR will rise and the highest we’ve seen in over two years.”
Forecasts for the top seven manufacturers for October 2011:
Unit Sales Forecast
|Manufacturer||October 2011 Forecast||% Change vs. September 2011||% Change vs. October 2010|
Market Share Forecast
|Manufacturer||October 2011 Forecast||September 2011||October 2010|
Incentive Spending Forecast
|Manufacturer||October 2011 Incentives||% Change vs. September 2011||% Change vs. October 2010||Total Spending|
“Japanese automakers have seen substantial improvement in inventory this month and buyers are responding to the better availability of product as well as higher incentives,” said Kristen Andersson, Automotive Analyst at TrueCar.com.
TrueCar.com also projects sales down to the brand level, which can be viewed in its entirety at the Truth Blog on TrueCar.com. Brand level incentive spending forecasts are available upon request.
TrueCar.com bases its forecast on actual transaction data. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including: sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts, and CPI). TrueCar.com does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.
*Used car sales figures include sales from franchise dealerships, independent dealerships and private party sales
About TrueCar, Inc.
TrueCar, Inc. is an automotive solutions provider focused on changing how cars are sold by providing a significantly better customer experience while helping qualified dealer partners to gain incremental market share and reduce costs. As a transparent, visual publisher of new car transaction data, TrueCar.com price reports help both dealers and consumers to agree on the parameters of a fair deal by providing an accurate, comprehensive and simple understanding of what others actually paid for the identically equipped new car over the last 30 days both locally and nationally.
TrueCar, Inc. works with a national network of more than 5,000 Certified Dealers that provide up-front, no-haggle, competitive pricing to assist some of the nation’s largest and most well respected membership and service organizations to meet the auto buying needs of their members and customers. These partnerships include American Express, AAA, USAA and more than 60 others. Collectively these audiences represent over 1M in-market customers each month.
TrueCar, Inc. is headquartered in Santa Monica, CA and has offices in San Francisco. The company was founded in 2005 and has been profitable since 2009. With nearly 200 percent year-over-year growth TrueCar has driven over 350,000 sales and is developing a suite of transaction oriented products and services centered on transparency and radical clarity as a result of comprehensively analyzing market data and information. You can follow TrueCar on Twitter and become a fan of TrueCar on Facebook.
About TrueCar Data
TrueCar obtains data directly from numerous sources including automotive dealers, technology companies, data aggregators, and analytics companies within the automotive space. We also acquire vehicle configuration data, customer and dealer incentives data, financing and loan data, vehicle registration and insurance data, and much, much more. TrueCar is insatiable about data with our goal to find 100% of all purchase transactions, even if that means finding the same transaction multiple times from multiple sources within the car-buying ecosystem. Our data is among the most timely and comprehensive in the industry, as we are able to process most car sales within a week of the actual sales date, and have a substantial fraction on the site within 48 hours of the actual sale. TrueCar believes the greater our informational accuracy, the greater benefit we provide to both dealers and consumers.
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