SANTA MONICA, Calif. — TrueCar.com, the authority on new car pricing, trends and forecasting, today released its January 2012 sales and incentives forecast. The forecast shows the following:
- For January 2012, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 874,481 units, up 6.7 percent from January 2011 and down 29.6 percent from December 2011 (on an unadjusted basis)
- The January 2012 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 13.6 million new car sales, up from 12.7 million in January 2011 and flat at 13.6 million in December 2011
- Retail sales are up 7.3 percent compared to January 2011 and down 30.0 percent from December 2011
- Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 19 percent of total industry sales in January 2012
- The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,592 in January 2012, which represents an increase of 0.5 percent from January 2011 and down 4.0 percent from December 2011
- Used car sales* are estimated to be 2,166,466, up 8.0 percent from January 2011 and down 31.1 percent from December 2011. The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1:2 for January 2012
“The underlying consumer demand for new vehicles continues to improve at a steady pace. For the first time in several years, we are starting the year off with a warm and fuzzy feeling of the good-old-days where the industry and the consumers are once again focused on the excitement of the new cars –and not which car company is going to survive,” said Jesse Toprak, Vice President of Industry Trends and Insights for TrueCar.com. “The positive momentum from the end of 2011 and a reasonable January 2012 sales rate will likely take industry sales very close to 14 million units this year.”
Forecasts for the top seven manufacturers for January 2012:
Unit Sales Forecast
|Manufacturer||January 2012 Forecast||% Change vs. December 2011||% Change vs. January 2011|
Market Share Forecast
|Manufacturer||January 2012 Forecast||December 2011||January 2011|
Incentive Spending Forecast
|Manufacturer||January 2012 Incentives||% Change vs. December 2011||% Change vs. January 2011||Total Spending|
“Consumers continue to respond positively to the new product introductions from Chrysler and Volkswagen as they had the best sales growth year over year this month, while General Motors and Honda saw the biggest declines,” said Kristen Andersson, Automotive Analyst at TrueCar.com. “Incentive spending is flat from last year as automakers continue to enhance their incentive strategies while keeping spending to a minimum compared to previous years.”
TrueCar.com also projects sales down to the brand level, which can be viewed in its entirety at the Truth Blog on TrueCar.com. Brand level incentive spending forecasts are available upon request.
TrueCar.com bases its forecast on actual transaction data. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including: sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts, and CPI). TrueCar.com does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.
*Used car sales figures include sales from franchise dealerships, independent dealerships and private party sales
TrueCar, Inc. is an automotive solutions provider focused on changing how cars are sold by providing a significantly better customer experience while helping qualified dealer partners to gain incremental market share and reduce costs. TrueCar is a visual publisher of new car transaction data. TrueCar price reports help both dealers and consumers to agree on the parameters of a fair deal by providing an accurate, comprehensive and simple understanding of what others actually paid recently for an identically-equipped vehicle both locally and nationally. TrueCar works with a national network of dealers that provide a no-hassle car buying experience, and in many cases a highly competitive upfront price, to assist some of the nation’s largest and most well respected membership and service organizations to meet the auto buying needs of their members and customers. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, CA and has offices in San Francisco, CA and Austin, TX. With 131 percent annual growth since 2006, TrueCar has connected hundreds of thousands of consumers with dealers nationwide resulting in the sale of over 400,000 vehicles and is developing a suite of products and services centered on radical clarity through the comprehensive analysis of market data and information.
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