- For July 2012, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,171,201 units, up 10.6 percent from July 2011 and down 8.8 percent from June 2012 (on an unadjusted basis)
- The July 2012 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (“SAAR”) of 14.1 million new car sales, up from 12.2 million in July 2011 and down from 14.1 million in June 2012
- Retail sales are up 3.0 percent compared to July 2011 and down 8.9 percent from June 2012
- Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 21.0 percent of total industry sales in July 2012
- The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,480 in July 2012, which represents a decrease of 3.7 percent from July 2011 and a decrease of 2.7 percent from June 2012
- Used car sales* are estimated to be 4,238,619, down 5.7 percent from July 2011 and down 3.3 percent from June 2012. The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1:4 for July 2012
“The pace of new vehicle sales remained steady in July despite the mixed economic news, helped by the compelling selection of vehicles and highly optimized incentive programs,” said Jesse Toprak, Vice President of Market Intelligence for TrueCar.com. “The Japanese Big 3, as well as Chrysler, will all be posting double-digit gains while Ford and GM will essentially be flat. One look at the Toyota and Honda sales today will make you think as if nothing ever happened last year.”
Forecasts for the top eight manufacturers for July 2012:
|Manufacturer||July 2012 Forecast||% Change vs. June 2012||% Change vs. July 2011|
|Manufacturer||July 2012 Forecast||June 2012||July 2011|
|% Change vs. June 2012||% Change vs. July 2011||Total Spending|
“Average incentive spending has declined for the third consecutive month,” said Kristen Andersson, Senior Analyst at TrueCar.com. “Japanese automakers are boosting their incentive spending this summer and becoming more aggressive in marketing their deals to lure buyers, which is a reversal from their historical patterns where the product itself was always at the center of their ad campaigns.”
TrueCar.com also projects sales down to the brand level, which can be viewed in its entirety at the Truth Blog on TrueCar.com. Brand level incentive spending forecasts are available upon request.
TrueCar.com bases its forecast on actual transaction data. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including: sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts, and CPI). TrueCar.com does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.
*Used car sales figures include sales from franchise dealerships, independent dealerships and private party sales
**SAAR factors from the BEA were unavailable and not used in the calculation of SAAR as is typically the case
About TrueCar, Inc.
TrueCar, Inc. is an online automotive information and communications platform focused on creating a better car buying experience for dealers and consumers. Consumers want a hassle-free car buying experience and dealers want high-quality sales velocity. TrueCar helps achieve these goals by providing unbiased market information on new car transactions and by supplying an online communications platform through which dealers and consumers can communicate with each other. TrueCar’s market-based information provides both consumers and dealers with an accurate and comprehensive understanding of what others actually paid recently for similar vehicles, both locally and nationally. TrueCar’s communications platform then allows informed, ready-to-buy consumers to communicate directly with participating dealers. Some of the nation’s largest and most well respected membership and service organizations rely on websites powered by TrueCar to help educate their members and customers who are in the automotive market. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, CA, and has offices in San Francisco, CA, and Austin, TX. After experiencing dramatic growth since 2006, TrueCar is developing a suite of products and services centered on radical clarity through the comprehensive analysis of market data and information. TrueCar’s participating dealer partners have sold over 500,000 new vehicles to TrueCar users nationwide.
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