- For May 2012, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,400,665 units, up 32 percent from May 2011 and up 18.3 percent from April 2012 (on an unadjusted basis)
- The May 2012 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 14.5 million new car sales, up from 11.7 million in May 2011 and flat from 14.5 million in April 2012
- Retail sales are up 29.4 percent compared to May 2011 and up 21.1 percent from April 2012
- Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 21.0 percent of total industry sales in May 2012
- The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,392 in May 2012, which represents an increase of 4.0 percent from May 2011 and decrease of 2.0 percent from April 2012
- Used car sales* are estimated to be 4,387,554, up 6.3 percent from May 2011 and up 15.7 percent from April 2012. The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1:3 for May 2012
“Pent up demand continues to fuel auto sales at a steady and sustainable level in May” said Jesse Toprak, Vice President of Market Intelligence for TrueCar.com. “All major manufacturers will see double digit growth this month; Toyota’s recovery stemming from the natural disasters has happened at a breakneck pace and sales this month for Toyota will be the highest we have seen in a few years led by strong sales of the Camry and Prius along with strong sales from GM, which will be the highest since September 2008.
Forecasts for the top eight manufacturers for May 2012:
|Manufacturer||May 2012 Forecast||% Change vs. April 2012||% Change vs. May 2011|
|Manufacturer||May 2012 Forecast||Apr-12||May-11|
|Manufacturer||May 2012Incentives||% Change vs. April 2012||% Change vs. May 2011||Total Spending|
“Strong products from all automakers are driving sales as automakers continue to maintain or reduce incentive levels,” said Kristen Andersson, Senior Analyst at TrueCar.com. “Volkswagen should have their best sales ever in the month of May with strong sales of the redesigned Passat and Jetta.”
TrueCar.com also projects sales down to the brand level, which can be viewed in its entirety at the Truth Blog on TrueCar.com. Brand level incentive spending forecasts are available upon request.
TrueCar.com bases its forecast on actual transaction data. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including: sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts, and CPI). TrueCar.com does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.
*Used car sales figures include sales from franchise dealerships, independent dealerships and private party sales
TrueCar, Inc. is an automotive solutions provider focused on changing how cars are sold by providing a significantly better customer experience while helping qualified dealer partners to gain incremental market share and reduce costs. TrueCar is a visual publisher of new car transaction data. TrueCar price reports help both dealers and consumers to agree on the parameters of a fair deal by providing an accurate, comprehensive and simple understanding of what others actually paid recently for an identically-equipped vehicle both locally and nationally. TrueCar works with a national network of dealers that provide a no-hassle car buying experience, and in many cases a highly competitive upfront price, to assist some of the nation’s largest and most well respected membership and service organizations to meet the auto buying needs of their members and customers. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, CA and has offices in San Francisco, CA and Austin, TX. With 131 percent annual growth since 2006, TrueCar has connected hundreds of thousands of consumers with dealers nationwide resulting in the sale of over 400,000 vehicles and is developing a suite of products and services centered on radical clarity through the comprehensive analysis of market data and information.
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