SANTA MONICA, Calif. — TrueCar.com released its October 2012 sales and incentives forecast. The forecast shows the following:
- For October 2012, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,137,744 units, up 11.5 percent from October 2011 and down 4.2 percent from September 2012 (on an unadjusted basis)
- The October 2012 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (“SAAR”) of 14.9 million new car sales, up from 13.3 million in October 2011 and down from 14.94 million in September 2012
- Retail sales are up 8.6 percent compared to October 2011 and down 3.9 percent from September 2012
- Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 18.1 percent of total industry sales in October 2012
- The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,353 in October 2012, which represents an decrease of 5.6 percent from October 2011 and decrease of 2.9 percent from September 2012
- Used car sales are estimated to be 3,220,457*, up 10.8 percent from October 2011 and down 8.3 percent from September 2012. The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1:3 for October 2012
“New car sales are on automatic pilot. October was a robust start to Q4 sales with most manufacturers posting double digit gains while continuing to lower incentives spending,” said Jesse Toprak, senior analyst at TrueCar.com. “We expect this recovery momentum to continue into the next year, with 2013 sales reaching 15.5 million units.”
Forecasts for the top eight manufacturers for October 2012:
|Manufacturer||October 2012 Forecast||% Change vs. September 2012||% Change vs. October 2011|
|Manufacturer||October 2012 Forecast||September 2012||October 2011|
|Manufacturer||October 2012 Incentives||% Change vs. September 2012||% Change vs. October 2011||Total Spending|
“Incentives continue to decline with October being the lowest month since May, 2011,” said Kristen Andersson, analyst at TrueCar.com. “Honda’s incentives declined 13 percent from last month as their inventory of model year 2012 Accords sold out, which were heavily discounted in September.”
TrueCar.com also projects sales down to the brand level, which can be viewed in its entirety at the Truth Blog on TrueCar.com. Brand level incentive spending forecasts are available upon request.
TrueCar.com bases its forecast on actual transaction data. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including: sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts, and CPI). TrueCar.com does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.
*Used car sales figures include sales from franchise dealerships, independent dealerships and private party sales
About TrueCar, Inc.
TrueCar, Inc., headquartered in Santa Monica, Calif., with offices in Santa Barbara, Calif., San Francisco, Calif., and Austin, Texas, is an automotive pricing information and analysis company that creates a better buying experience for dealers and consumers. As an online publisher of unbiased new and used car transaction data, TrueCar.com provides price reports that empower dealers and consumers to agree on the parameters of a fair deal by supplying a transparent, simple understanding of what others recently paid for identically-equipped new cars in their geographic area. ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar, is the benchmark for vehicle value information to the automotive industry and has been forecasting residual values for nearly 50 years in both the U.S. and Canadian markets.
TrueCar is a data-driven company that sources and compiles car-buying information unlike anybody in the industry. This is why, since its founding in 2005, TrueCar dealer partners have sold over 600,000 vehicles across the country. Its national network of more than 4,700 Certified Dealers is committed to provide no-hassle pricing for some of the country’s largest membership and service organizations, including American Express, AAA, USAA and Consumer Reports that collectively represent more than one million monthly in-market customers.
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