August 2012 SAAR Estimated at 14.2M; Incentive Spending Down 6 Percent
SANTA MONICA, Calif. —TrueCar.com, the authority on new car pricing, trends and forecasting information, today released its August 2012 sales and incentives forecast. The forecast shows the following:
- For August 2012, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,255,392 units, up 17.2 percent from August 2011 and up 8.9 percent from July 2012 (on an unadjusted basis)
- The August 2012 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (“SAAR”) of 14.2 million new car sales, up from 12.1 million in August 2011 and up from 14.1 million in July 2012
- Retail sales are up 14.3 percent compared to August 2011 and up 9.7 percent from July 2012
- Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 18.1 percent of total industry sales in August 2012
- The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,457 in August 2012, which represents an decrease of 6.0 percent from August 2011 and decrease of 2.0 percent from July 2012
- Used car sales* are estimated to be 3,991,033, up 4.7 percent from August 2011 and down 13.3 percent from July 2012. The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1:4 for August 2012
“While the overall economy remains at a stand-still, auto sales continue to be strong as August marks the third straight month of SAAR over 14 million,” said Jesse Toprak, Vice President of Market Intelligence for TrueCar.com. “Domestics continue to lose market share as the strength of the Japanese recovery continues. Volkswagen is quietly becoming a serious player whose growth can’t be ignored.”
Forecasts for the top eight manufacturers for August 2012:
|Manufacturer||August 2012 Forecast||Percent Change vs.July 2012||Percent Change vs. August 2011|
|Manufacturer||August 2012 Forecast||July 2012||August 2011|
|Manufacturer||August 2012 Incentives||Percent Change vs. July 2012||Percent Change vs. August 2011||Total Spending|
“Incentive spending in August is around the lowest level we have seen this year and has decreased for the fourth consecutive month,” said Kristen Andersson, Senior Analyst at TrueCar.com. “Automakers continue to optimize incentives and spend less dollars-wise despite the big push this month to sell down inventory on older models.”
TrueCar.com also projects sales down to the brand level, which can be viewed in its entirety at the Truth Blog on TrueCar.com. Brand level incentive spending forecasts are available upon request.
TrueCar.com bases its forecast on actual transaction data. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including: sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts, and CPI). TrueCar.com does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.
*Used car sales figures include sales from franchise dealerships, independent dealerships and private party sales
TrueCar, Inc., headquartered in Santa Monica, Calif., with offices in San Francisco, Calif., and Austin, Texas, is an automotive pricing and analysis company that creates a better buying experience for dealers and consumers. As an online publisher of unbiased new and used car transaction data, its automotive information website, TrueCar.com, provides price reports that empower dealers and consumers to agree on the parameters of a fair deal by supplying a transparent, simple understanding of what others recently paid for identically-equipped new cars in their geographic area.
TrueCar is a data-driven company that sources and compiles car-buying information unlike anybody in the industry. Since its founding in 2005, TrueCar’s participating dealer partners have sold over 500,000 new vehicles to TrueCar users nationwide. TrueCar’s national network of more than 4,600 Certified Dealers is committed to provide no-hassle pricing for some of the country’s largest membership and service organizations, including American Express, AAA, USAA and Consumer Reports that collectively represent more than one million monthly in-market customers.
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