NEW YORK — Data through October 2012, released this week by S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian for the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices, a comprehensive measure of changes in consumer credit defaults, showed that most loan types saw an increase in default rates during the month. After nine consecutive months of declining default rates, the national composite increased to 1.55% in October from 1.46% September rate. The first mortgage default rate increased from 1.36% in September to 1.47% in October. Auto loan and second mortgage default rates moved up from 1.11% and 0.64% in September to 1.14% and 0.65% in October, respectively. Bank card default rate posted the lowest post-recession rate of 3.68% in October; it was 3.70% in September.
“After three quarters of declining consumer credit default rates, national composite increased in October,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee for S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Overall consumer credit quality remains healthy. Looking across our 10 headline indices, all are at levels typical of the pre-crisis period of the early 2000s. Only one – bank card – shows default rate above 2.5% and even that hit the recent low, which is close to its eight-year historic minimum.”
“The national composite posted 1.55% in October, 9 basis points above the previous month’s rate. This change was mostly driven by an increase in the first mortgage default rate, which posted 1.47% in October, 11 basis points above September’s level. The auto loan rate is 3 basis points up from September; it posted 1.14% this month. The second mortgage is marginally up by 1 basis point from its September rate of 0.64%, the lowest rate in its eight-plus year history. Bank card was the only product line that decreased in October. It hit the new post-recession low of 3.68%, down by 2 basis points from the previous month.
“Three out of five cities we cover showed a decrease in their default rates; and two of them hit the post-recession lows – Chicago and Los Angeles. Chicago’s rate was 1.78% in October, down from 1.82% in September. Los Angeles saw a third consecutive monthly decrease, marginally down to 1.44% in October, from September rate of 1.45%. Miami’s rate fell to 2.44% in October from 2.48% in September. New York’s October rate was 1.35%, 7 basis points up from September. Dallas’s rate increased the most – its 1.26% October rate was up by 23 basis points from September’s rate; and it still remains the lowest default rate of the five cities we publish.”
The table on the next page summarizes the October 2012 results for the S&P/Experian Credit Default Indices. These data are not seasonally adjusted and are not subject to revision.
|S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices|
|Index||October 2012 Index Level||September 2012 Index Level||October 2011 Index Level|
|Source: S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices|
|Data through October 2012|
The table below provides the S&P/Experian Consumer Default Composite Indices for the five MSAs:
|Metropolitan Statistical Area||October 2012 Index Level||September 2012 Index Level||October 2011 Index Level|
|Source: S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices|
|Data through October 2012|
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