Highest SAAR Since February 2008 at 15.2M
Estimated Incentive Spending Highest Since August 2010 at $2,765; Chrysler and Ford Have Lowest Incentive Spend Since January 2003 and September 2002, Respectively
SANTA MONICA, Calif. – TrueCar.com today released its November 2012 sales and incentives forecast. The forecast shows the following:
- For November 2012, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,120,088 units, up 12.7 percent from November 2011 and up 2.6 percent from October 2012 (on an unadjusted basis)
- The November 2012 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (“SAAR”) of 15.2 million new car sales, up from 13.5 million in November 2011 and up from 14.3 million in October 2012
- Retail sales are up 13.1 percent compared to November 2011 and up 6.3 percent from October 2012
- Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 16.1 percent of total industry sales in November 2012
- The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,764 in November 2012, which represents an increase of 4.4 percent from November 2011 and increase of 19.3 percent from October 2012
- Used car sales* are estimated to be 2,685,944, up 3.8 percent from November 2011 and down 11.7 percent from October 2012. The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1:3 for November 2012
“November was a strong month for new car sales and the impact from hurricane Sandy helped to boost auto sales to its highest since February 2008,” said Jesse Toprak, senior analyst for TrueCar.com. “Import automakers got the biggest lift due to some increased incentive spending building momentum heading into next year. We don’t expect any major impact on auto sales from the ongoing fiscal cliff discussions.”
Forecasts for the top eight manufacturers for November 2012:
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November 2012 Incentives
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“Incentives are expected to increase nearly 20 percent in November and to their highest levels in over two years,” said Kristen Andersson, analyst for TrueCar.com. “Nissan’s incentive spend increased by almost 80 percent while the Asian automakers incentives also grew by over 20 percent. GM was the only domestic automaker that increased incentive spending last month.”
TrueCar.com also projects sales down to the brand level, which can be viewed in its entirety at the Truth Blog on TrueCar.com. Brand level incentive spending forecasts are available upon request.
TrueCar.com bases its forecast on actual transaction data. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including: sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts, and CPI). TrueCar.com does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.
*Used car sales figures include sales from franchise dealerships, independent dealerships and private party sales
TrueCar, Inc., headquartered in Santa Monica, Calif., with offices in Santa Barbara, Calif., San Francisco, Calif., and Austin, Texas, is an automotive pricing information and analysis company that creates a better buying experience for dealers and consumers. As an online publisher of unbiased new and used car transaction data, TrueCar.com provides price reports that empower dealers and consumers to agree on the parameters of a fair deal by supplying a transparent, simple understanding of what others recently paid for identically-equipped new cars in their geographic area. TrueCar also owns ALG, the benchmark for vehicle value information to the automotive industry and has been forecasting residual values for nearly 50 years in both the U.S. and Canadian markets.
TrueCar is a data-driven company that sources, compiles, and analyses car-buying information unlike anybody in the industry. This is why, since its founding in 2005, TrueCar dealer partners have sold over 600,000 vehicles across the country. Its national network of more than 5,200 Certified Dealers is committed to provide no-hassle pricing for some of the country’s largest membership and service organizations, including American Express, AAA, USAA and Consumer Reports that collectively represent more than one million monthly in-market customers.
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