SANTA MONICA, Calif. — TrueCar.com, the authority on new car pricing, trends and forecasting, this week released its December 2011 sales and incentives forecast. The forecast shows the following:
- For December 2011, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,236,911 units, up 8.1 percent from December 2010 and up 24.4 percent from November 2011 (on an unadjusted basis)
- The December 2011 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 13.5 million new car sales, down from 13.7 million in November 2011 and up from 12.5 million in December 2010
- Retail sales are up 8.7 percent compared to December 2010 and up 26.0 percent from November 2011
- Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 19 percent of total industry sales in December 2011
- The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,563 in December 2011, which represents a decrease of 2.6 percent from November 2011 and down 3.0 percent from December 2010
- Used car sales* are estimated to be 2,854,666, up 1.7 percent from December 2010 and up 10.4 percent from November 2011. The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1:3 for December 2011
“December’s sales rate was a continuation of the rather slow and steady recovery that now symbolizes 2011,” said Jesse Toprak, Vice President of Industry Trends and Insights for TrueCar.com. “This year was absent of a blockbuster sales month but we see this pace of growth as healthy and sustainable in the coming year where the industry is going to sell nearly 14 million units based on the merits of its products and improved economy.”
Forecasts for the top seven manufacturers for December 2011:
Unit Sales Forecast
|Manufacturer||December 2011||% Change vs. November 2011||% Change vs. December 2010|
Market Share Forecast
|Manufacturer||December 2011 Forecast||November 2011||December 2010|
Incentive Spending Forecast
|Manufacturer||December 2011 Incentives||% Change vs. November 2011||% Change vs. December 2010||Total Spending|
“This year new car sales are up year over year for every major automaker except Honda and Toyota with Hyundai/Kia sales expected to rise the most at almost 28 percent,” said Kristen Andersson, Automotive Analyst at TrueCar.com. “Automakers have demonstrated discipline during year end sales events with every major automaker decreasing incentives except Nissan.”
TrueCar.com also projects sales down to the brand level, which can be viewed in its entirety at the Truth Blog on TrueCar.com. Brand level incentive spending forecasts are available upon request.
TrueCar.com bases its forecast on actual transaction data. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including: sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts, and CPI). TrueCar.com does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.
*Used car sales figures include sales from franchise dealerships, independent dealerships and private party sales
TrueCar, Inc. is an automotive solutions provider focused on changing how cars are sold by providing a significantly better customer experience while helping qualified dealer partners to gain incremental market share and reduce costs. TrueCar is a transparent, visual publisher of new car transaction data. TrueCar price reports help both dealers and consumers to agree on the parameters of a fair deal by providing an accurate, comprehensive and simple understanding of what others actually paid for the identically equipped new car over the last 30 days both locally and nationally. TrueCar works with a national network of over 5,400 Certified Dealers that provide up-front, no-haggle, competitive pricing to assist some of the nation’s largest and most well respected membership and service organizations to meet the auto buying needs of their members and customers. These partnerships include American Express, AAA, USAA and more than 60 others. Collectively these audiences represent over 1M in-market customers each month. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, CA and has offices in San Francisco. The company was founded in 2005 and has been profitable since 2009. With 131 percent annual growth since 2006, TrueCar has helped dealers sell over 400,000 vehicles and is developing a suite of transaction oriented products and services centered on transparency and radical clarity as a result of comprehensively analyzing market data and information.
About TrueCar Data
TrueCar obtains data directly from numerous sources including technology companies, data aggregators, and analytics companies within the automotive space. We also acquire vehicle configuration data, customer and dealer incentives data, financing and loan data, vehicle registration and insurance data, and much, much more. TrueCar is insatiable about data with our goal to find 100 percent of all purchase transactions, even if that means finding the same transaction multiple times from multiple sources within the car-buying ecosystem. Our data is among the most timely and comprehensive in the industry, as we are able to analyze most car sales within a week of the actual sales date, and have a substantial fraction on the site within 48 hours of the actual sale. TrueCar believes the greater our informational accuracy, the greater benefit we provide to both dealers and consumers.
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