SANTA MONICA, Calif. — TrueCar.com, the authority on new car pricing, trends and forecasting, today released its April 2012 sales and incentives forecast. The forecast shows the following:
- For April 2012, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,195,809 units, up 3.4 percent from April 2011 and down 14.8 percent from March 2012 (on an unadjusted basis)
- The April 2012 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 14.6 million new car sales, up from 13.2 million in April 2011 and up from 14.4 million in March 2012
- Retail sales are up 6.7 percent compared to April 2011 and down 9.5 percent from March 2012
- Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 18 percent of total industry sales in April 2012
- The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,446 in April 2012, which represents a decrease of 4.7 percent from March 2012 and increase of 5.6 percent from April 2011
- Used car sales* are estimated to be 3,615,148, down 2.0 percent from April 2011 but up 33.6. percent from March 2012. The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1:3 for April 2012
“The momentum built by the recovering economy and compelling product choices in the first quarter continued to fuel new vehicle sales in April, ” said Jesse Toprak, Vice President of Market Intelligence for TrueCar.com. “Consumer demand for the smaller, fuel-efficient vehicles remain strong while the SUV and truck categories are not seeing any dramatic drop in sales – thanks to the introduction of several new models that offer significantly better fuel economy.”
Forecasts for the top eight manufacturers for April 2012:
|Manufacturer||April 2012 Forecast||% Change vs. March 2012||% Change vs. April 2011|
|Manufacturer||April 2012 Forecast||March 2012||April 2011|
|Manufacturer||April 2012 Incentives||% Change vs. March 2012||% Change vs. April 2011||Total Spending|
“Toyota has fully recovered from inventory shortages caused by last year’s earthquake and tsunami and have recouped most of their lost market share in April,” said Kristen Andersson, Senior Analyst at TrueCar.com. “The automaker will post their highest market share since December 2010 led by sales of fuel efficient vehicles like the Camry, Prius, and Corolla.”
TrueCar.com also projects sales down to the brand level, which can be viewed in its entirety at TrueCar Blog. Brand level incentive spending forecasts are available upon request.
TrueCar.com bases its forecast on actual transaction data. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including: sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts, and CPI). TrueCar.com does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.
*Used car sales figures include sales from franchise dealerships, independent dealerships and private party sales
TrueCar, Inc. is an online automotive information and communications platform focused on creating a better car buying experience for dealers and consumers. Consumers want a hassle-free car buying experience and dealers want high-quality sales velocity. TrueCar helps achieve these goals by providing unbiased market information on new car transactions and by supplying an online communications platform through which dealers and consumers can communicate with each other. TrueCar’s market-based information provides both consumers and dealers with an accurate and comprehensive understanding of what others actually paid recently for similar vehicles, both locally and nationally. TrueCar’s communications platform then allows informed, ready-to-buy consumers to communicate directly with participating dealers. Some of the nation’s largest and most well respected membership and service organizations rely on websites powered by TrueCar to help educate their members and customers who are in the automotive market. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, CA, and has offices in San Francisco, CA, and Austin, TX. After experiencing dramatic growth since 2006, TrueCar is developing a suite of products and services centered on radical clarity through the comprehensive analysis of market data and information. TrueCar’s participating dealer partners have sold over 500,000 new vehicles to TrueCar users nationwide.
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